Strength in Numbers #208
This is one of the most exciting times of the year. We are about to see a new crop of MLB players entering the greatest show on earth.
It’s always rewarding watching athletes being signed – some of you will see your players’ names called this season. You have been with them through the best and worst of times. You have seen them mature, improve their high-performance habits, prepare for the MLB Combine, then shake hands and put on an MLB team hat and jersey. What’s more exciting is the anticipation of watching them play their first MLB game and feeling that you are a part of it.
With every amateur player turning pro, there are a lot of key questions to iron out:
- What factors increase a player’s draft stock?
- How long can players stay healthy after being signed?
- How are players developed in their first year?
- How do players project future WAR (Wins Above Replacement)?
The MLB prospect pitcher is an interesting one. With all the hype in the media surrounding arm injuries, the “ticking time bomb theory” that all pitchers will require surgery at some point, players who throw too hard, too soon, and too young are at risk.
Combined with overuse at the collegiate level, where players often play year-round for three years with collegiate summer league programs, should teams consider avoiding making their first-round pick a pitcher?
In this article, we will examine draft data and key insights to consider in increasing the likelihood of players reaching the MLB level. Regardless, we need to be objective in protecting our athletes and preparing them for the highest level, irrespective of their ability level.
In all honesty, you never know which one of your players will become a future MLB Superstar, and you need to have a player development and injury protection model that accelerates the process.
Read on!
MLB Draft & Injury Research: What the Data Reveals
I have done a little research on injury surveillance for drafted players. I advise a good number of them on performance and health matters, and many of them are pitchers. There are some trends that are not favorable when looking through baseballreference.com and fangraphs.com data.
- Health Influences Draft Outcomes
- Studies indicate that players with prior rotator cuff repair or UCL issues still get drafted, but medical flags—especially UCL-related injuries—impact slot value and future injury risk, which has happened for Kumar Rocker.
- Draft Position Breakdown
- Across recent MLB drafts, roughly 55% of selections are pitchers, with the remaining 45% being position players. Two-way players remain rare, representing approximately 1–2% of first-round picks. In the past five years, 40–50% of first-round picks were pitchers, and around 5% were drafted as two-way talents. The moral of the story is that pitchers are in high demand, so the threat of sunk costs could be high, given that pitchers are at greater risk of throwing arm injuries than position players.
- Minor League Tommy John Trends
- Among Minor League pitchers, roughly 10–13% undergo UCL reconstruction within five years of being drafted. Many factors contribute to surgical injury, but the most profound is a lack of observation. Most teams have over 100 pitchers to monitor, and staff tend to prioritize the highest-level picks, those with the most significant compensation. Therefore, much of the rest of the group could slip through the cracks and end up on the operating table.
- First-Round Pick Composition (2019–2023)
- Although the overall draft has shown predominantly more pitchers selected, approximately 10 out of every 20–30 first-round picks (33%) have been pitchers. This means that most MLB teams are reluctant to draft a first-round pitcher, and it is possible that injury concerns and sunk costs could be a part of it. Two-way selections in recent drafts (e.g., 2020–2024) remain at 1–2 players per draft, but that should not mean you should force your players to choose a position – pitcher only or position player. Have them develop both skills for as long as possible, and let the team decide how the player is selected.
- Career Longevity for 2021 Pitchers
- For those drafted in 2021, about 70% of pitchers reached at least three consecutive professional seasons post-draft. Although durable success varied widely by role and injury history, 30% of all pitchers were either released or injured, which prevented them from playing more than three consecutive seasons.
Missed observations are the number one factor involved in player injuries. The ArmCare technology provides a player-led approach to identify areas of focus in player development and injury protection. This example illustrates a shoulder balance data point, where the arm is too strong on the front in internal rotation. This is a risk factor for the UCL and one that can be prevented with an individualized approach.
The Chances of Making the MLB by Draft Round
Where you are positioned in the draft matters for future opportunities to play at the MLB level; there’s no question about it: if you are drafted in the first three rounds, you have a strong chance of getting called up, but it’s not guaranteed.
Interestingly, there appears to be a parallel between draft pick position and the chances of making the top level, with the bottom rounds having the lowest odds. However, when it comes to future WAR, the 8th round presents outliers as far as future WAR by round.
The above tables indicate that a significant amount of money spent on talent does not yield a high return, with fewer than 30% of first-rounders ever playing an MLB game. Given the money spent on players in the first round, the majority of why these players are failing is due to injuries. If broken down further, I anticipate that most of the first-rounders who did not convert on their signing bonus have come from career-ending injuries.
College pitcher selections are risky in the first round compared to all other positions. This is likely due to the fear of overuse from college, as well as the potential for multiple injuries to occur in college before the draft, which tend to result in lower long-term performance compared to high school pitchers.
Over a 10-year period of the MLB draft, the 4-year college pitcher had less WAR than the high school signee pitcher. This is likely due to injuries and high mileage that never had a break from getting off the track or modified approaches based on objective data.
The ability to monitor throwing arm fatigue has the opportunity to reduce the wear and tear on a pitcher’s arm. It gives them a greater chance of being a successful impact player at the MLB level after the draft, or even the honor of being drafted by an MLB team.
Bigger High School Players, Bigger Bank Accounts
Physical factors are hard to determine from publicly available data. However, using Perfect Game data, there is an opportunity to assess the impact of body size on the draft. The bigger, faster, stronger model has its place, but I have concerns about chasing a bigger body, one with a bigger engine, and one that lacks the brakes and suspension to handle all that horsepower.
This graph indicates that the first five picks are statistically larger than the last five picks of the draft. When it comes to velocity traits, a heavier athlete who is explosive has absolute power and momentum that can translate to faster throwing velocity and exit velocity off the bat. Still, with that big engine, it takes profound observation to keep the Ferrari on the road.
By the same token, looking at body size, smaller athletes at the time of the draft tended to progress through the minor leagues more quickly. There are factors that contribute to this finding, as these players may have undergone a physical transformation in college and matched the size of the high school athletes drafted, who were typically larger in size at the time of the draft.
Looking at high school-signed athletes, the time it takes to reach an MLB debut was not statistically significant. However, when separating high and low body mass groups, pitchers with lower body mass in high school took 100 fewer innings to reach the MLB level once drafted.
This could be due to a physical transformation in high school, meeting the mass equivalent of the larger players drafted early, as well as being older at the time of the draft with more competitive experience, which shortens the time needed to be MLB-ready.
In this image, we can objectively measure the relationship between body size and throwing arm strength. If athletes grow too big and the throwing is relatively weak, there’s a greater risk of injury to the athlete.
This is a factor contributing to fewer players succeeding at the MLB level who are four-year collegiate athletes and first-round draft picks who never convert. If larger high school athletes are selected in the first five picks, they should all have ArmScore’s over 100 and a high strength-velocity ratio to support their body size and throwing arm speed.
Takeaways
Draft season is exciting, but for many teams, coaches, and players, it can be scary. The mystery of what you will get in the future from a player is high, as there is no crystal ball, but you use data, scout recommendations, and player references to make a solid pick.
To answer our opening questions of how athletes can increase their WAR, key items to improve their development post-draft, and identify factors that may not allow them to succeed – look no further than missed observations.
We have the solution, and it comes with an ArmShield Guarantee. If you want your amateur athletes prepared for the MLB draft and build a key habit of assessing their throwing arms throughout their entire career, it’s time to get onboard.
Don’t Guess – Assess, and hopefully, you can see that Strength Matters Most in protecting talent, creating opportunity, and raising the future stars of tomorrow.
Happy 4th of July Weekend!
Ryan
Ryan@armcare.com